By Grant Schwab, Melissa Nann Burke, The Detroit News
Washington — As President Donald Trump prepares to visit Detroit on Tuesday as part of an unofficial “affordability tour,” close to two-thirds of Michiganians said they are seeing their household costs increase, according to a new poll from The Detroit News and WDIV-TV.
The telephone survey of 600 likely Michigan voters found that 64% of respondents said their household costs have gone up in the past year, with an overwhelming 82.5% of those individuals pointing to food and groceries as the budget category that is rising the most.
About 13% of likely voters said their overall household costs have declined, while 22% said costs have stayed the same. The Jan. 2-6 survey had a margin of error of plus-minus 4 percentage points.
“This is all about groceries. That’s what this is all about,” said Richard Czuba, founder of the Lansing-based Glengariff Group, which conducted the poll.
Pocketbook blowback from voters in battleground Michigan could portend a poor showing by Republicans in the pivotal 2026 midterm elections. Trump will likely make the case Tuesday that his policies, including increased tariffs and tax cuts that will come into focus during the upcoming filing season, are helping families and positioning the auto-heavy state for a manufacturing renaissance. The GOP president plans to tour a Ford Motor Co. factory ahead of a mid-afternoon speech at a Detroit Economic Club meeting.
But Czuba said the economic mood in the state, at least for now, is poor.
“One of (former President) Joe Biden’s biggest mistakes in 2024 was telling voters they were wrong about the economy and prices,” Czuba said. “And here we are in 2026, Donald Trump is doing the exact same thing. Nobody wins by telling the voters they’re wrong, and it’s very clear voters are very put out by the cost of food.”
He added: “The key for the Republicans here is they need a response. They need a response to this message, and they need it to be driven by Donald Trump. … Telling voters it’s a hoax is not the right message. He needs to tell them something tangible about reducing prices.”
The survey found that 48% of respondents said Trump’s economic policies have made the national economy overall weaker, while 38% said his policies have made the economy stronger. About 10% said his suite of tariffs, tax cuts, regulatory rollbacks and more has had no impact.
Asked to grade Trump on his handling of the economy, twice as many respondents gave the president an “F” as gave him an “A.”
A 44% plurality of likely voters gave Trump a failing grade of a D or F, while 38% said he deserves an A or B grade, according to the poll results.
“That is not a strong position to begin this election year from,” Czuba said. He pointed to a 6-percentage-point edge Democrats currently hold in Michigan’s generic ballot among likely voters, according to the poll. That advantage jumps to 12.5 points among “definite” voters, Czuba said.
The poll had a sample of 40.6% of voters who identify as Democrats, 40.3% Republicans and 18.2% independents.
Michigan voters could play an outsized role in determining which party controls Congress during the final two years of Trump’s term as Democrats look to flip three U.S. House seats in the Great Lakes State. Nationally, the party needs a net gain of three seats to win back the chamber.
There will also be a highly competitive showdown for a U.S. Senate seat with Gary Peters, D-Bloomfield Township, retiring after the end of his term this year.
Republican strategist Jason Roe said the survey confirms and underscores what everyone has known for the last few months on the affordability issue, the role it played in off-year elections and the impact it’s having on households, including those around Michigan.
“The reality is that Trump’s numbers have always been this bad when it comes to favorability. While we did get our tails kicked in 2018,” Roe said of the last Trump midterm election, “I think there’s different dynamics this time around, and there’s things for Republicans to be hopeful for. But fixing the economy and affordability issue is first and foremost.”
Roe said there are some economic data points to be optimistic about, including that productivity is improving and unemployment is going down, noting that Trump advisers also expect the impact of the administration’s tariffs to bear fruit in the first quarter.
But Roe also said that the pain Michiganians reported feeling over grocery prices “makes sense to me.”
“People go to the grocery store week to week. They can measure those things more specifically than any other bill that’s monthly,” he said. “But $5 to $10 in your grocery bill, you can feel when that happens. That’s more acute.”
The president who’s in power is ultimately the one voters give responsibility or credit to for how the economy is going and, for Trump, that’s proving no different, said John Sellek, a consultant who has worked for Republican candidates and is CEO of the firm Harbor Strategic Public Affairs.
“We’ve been talking about ‘It’s the economy, stupid,’ at least since Bill Clinton and James Carville and further back than that. The advantage for Trump is that he’s only one year into a four-year term. Turning the ship from where the economy was under Biden is a hard task,” Sellek said.
“I think that’s why we’re seeing him in Detroit because he’s going to try to talk about some of those things that are starting to change.”
Michigan Democratic Party Chairman Curtis Hertel said there’s a lot of buyer’s remorse when it comes to Trump, who promised that costs would go down, wages would go up, and his focus would be on the American people and not foreign entanglements.
“I think it’s pretty clear that’s not happened. … So while food and medicine and health care and child care are all more expensive than they were before, the president is focused on ― I don’t know ― what country we are invading this week, Greenland or whatever?” Hertel said.
Hertel said Trump hasn’t solved the “biggest” problem of the moment, which is expired Obamacare tax credits and rising health care costs for millions of Americans. About 45% of voters surveyed said their health insurance costs have risen, with 22% of respondents describing their higher health care costs as “much more,” according to the poll.
“I think your polling shows exactly what people are experiencing, which is their lives have not been getting better as a result of this president and the actions he’s taken, but in fact he’s directly led to their costs going up,” Hertel said.
“Their costs keep going up while millionaires and billionaires get a tax cut. It’s pretty simple to see, and people are smart and see what’s happening in America and are opposed to it.”
Motivation gap
Trump campaigned vigorously in 2024 on reducing prices, but worsening attitudes toward the economy under the Republican leader’s watch have contributed to a shrinking motivation to vote among his supporters.
In January 2024, Democrats and Republicans in Michigan were roughly even in their “definite” motivation, Czuba said, recalling Glengariff Group polling conducted at the time. The new survey showed Democrats (88%) as significantly more motivated than Republicans (72%).
Trump’s overall approval rating among likely Michigan voters is largely unchanged from past benchmarks. His 52.5% disapproval and 44.5% approval rating is “exactly where it was during all of his first term,” according to Czuba.
Among voters who definitely plan to cast ballots on Nov. 3, Czuba said, Trump’s disapproval rating climbs to nearly 57%.
The veteran Michigan pollster called voter motivation issues a “red flag” for the GOP, adding: “We’ve seen this play out over the last year nationally. In special elections in Virginia and New Hampshire, Democrats were highly motivated and swept in their candidates. Republicans have to figure out their motivation problems to make this a competitive race.”
The survey results on economic questions among independents, Czuba added, should be especially concerning for Republicans. About 29% of independents polled said Trump is making the national economy stronger, while 45.5% said he was making it weaker, and nearly 21% said Trump was having no impact.
The splits among strongly Democratic voting respondents were 91.4% weaker, 2.5% stronger and 2% no impact. For strong Republican voters, the splits were 81% stronger, 4% weaker and 11% no impact.
“In Michigan, it’s going to be the independents who make all the decisions,” Czuba said. “And what really sticks out in the numbers is that the independents look a lot like the Democrats in thinking the economy is not good. It’s the Republicans who look different on the economy. They’re much more moderated in their positions.
“But if (the elections) are decided by independents, you’ve got to pay attention to what they think is happening with the economy.”
Sellek said Trump will be at his best Tuesday if he can acknowledge that things are tough, even if he completely blames President Biden’s time in office, and says, “I’m working on it.”
“That would be the best-case scenario for him,” Sellek said. “Otherwise, if he’s more combative and declines to speak to it, he’s going to be speaking more to his base than to middle voters that people in key congressional seats like (congressman) Tom Barrett need to win.”
Barrett, R-Charlotte, represents the 7th Congressional District, a swing district around the Lansing area that has attracted three Democrats vying to challenge the first-term congressman with Trump not on the ballot.
Voters weigh in
Republican Yolanda Thomas said in a telephone interview Monday that she approved of Trump’s handling of the economy. “So far, it looks pretty good,” she said, scoring the president with an “A” grade.
“I agree with him well more than 95%. Everybody makes mistakes, but I don’t expect him to be perfect,” said Thomas, who works with kids at an elementary school just outside Detroit and took part in the survey.
“He’s improved the economy. Look at gas prices alone. They’ve come down,” she added. “Not everything, but it looks like prices have come down for the most part.”
She also praised Trump’s handling of foreign affairs: “He’s no-nonsense, and that’s how we need to deal with tyrants,” she said. “I think that bullies respect strength.”
“A lot of people are coming over to his point of view, and they’re realizing that the left has been lying,” Thomas said. “I’m seeing a lot more of that, especially here next to Detroit. I’m seeing a lot more people are saying, ‘Hm, he’s not as bad as I was told.’”
Independent voter Gary Steed, 51, of White Lake Township, gave Trump an “F” for his handling of the economy, though “I’d give him a Z if the score went that low,” he said. Prices are up, wages are stagnant, and misinformation is rampant, he said.
“Every time I turn around when I go to the grocery store, it’s $300 or $400,” said Steed, who took part in the survey. “The price of beef, it’s crazy. For three steaks, it’s $75 to $100. For three steaks! You can go to a steak restaurant and get a meal for that price.”
Steed, who works in quality management, said he made less in Trump’s first year than in any year under Biden.
He likes that gas prices are coming down, which should affect the prices of all commodities. But Steed said he worries that won’t be enough to make a significant dent in prices without government action, noting the high cost of items like cars and groceries.
“It’s trickled down with everything. Gas isn’t the only thing it’s impacting. Data centers and energy. Shopping for computers is outrageous right now, because there’s a run on memory RAM that you put in your computer,” he said.
“It’s not just one thing. It’s everything.”
