By Craig Mauger, cmauger@detroitnews.com
Michigan is poised to see its closest race for governor in at least a decade, with both parties starting 2026 neck and neck and independent candidate Mike Duggan gaining ground, according to the first election-year poll commissioned by The Detroit News and WDIV-TV (Channel 4).
The Jan. 2-6 telephone survey of 600 likely general election voters was a mixed bag for Duggan and Michigan Democrats and Republicans, offering some reasons for optimism and clear risks ahead for all sides, about 10 months before Election Day.
In one potential matchup, about 34% of participants said they would vote for Republican U.S. Rep. John James of Shelby Township, 32% chose Democratic Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson of Detroit and 26% backed Duggan, the former mayor of Detroit. The result was within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points, and 8% of participants said they were undecided.
Richard Czuba, founder of the Glengariff Group, the firm that conducted the poll, acknowledged that it is difficult to know how an independent candidate’s performance in a survey converted to actual votes in an election because Michigan hasn’t had a well-known independent contender before.
“This is clearly going to be a close race,” Czuba said of the poll’s results. “And it would be a close race with or without Mike Duggan.”
When Duggan, a longtime Democrat, wasn’t included as an option in the new survey, Benson led James, 47%-45%, still within the margin of error but a 4-point change from the three-candidate version of the race.
Benson and James have to win contested primary elections in August to become their parties’ official nominees. Benson, a two-term secretary of state, and James, who has twice previously campaigned for U.S. Senate, are the most well-known major party candidates running for governor.
Richard Young, 83, of Fremont in west Michigan, was among the participants in the poll who said they planned to support James. Young, who was in the Army, highlighted the congressman’s character and his service in the military.
“It’s definitely time for a change,” Young said of Michigan’s current Democratic leadership.
But the silver lining in the poll for Michigan Democrats might be the fact that enthusiasm appears to be on their side.
Before the 2024 presidential election, which Republican Donald Trump won, those who identified themselves as “strong” Republicans and “strong” Democrats reported being similarly motivated to cast ballots. In January 2024, 88% of strong Republicans said they would definitely vote in November, and 88% of strong Democrats said they would definitely vote.
This January, however, 87% of strong Democrats said they would definitely vote, while 72% of strong Republicans said they would definitely vote, a 16-point drop.
“That is a huge red flag on the Republican side,” Czuba said. “They have a lot of voters who are not motivated to vote.”
Among voters who said they definitely plan to cast ballots this fall, Benson led James, 35% to 31%, with Duggan’s support remaining largely unchanged at 26%, according to the Detroit News-WDIV poll.
The poll included a sample of 40.6% of voters who identify as Democrats, 40.3% Republicans and 18.2% independents.
The environment
Typically, the party that holds the White House struggles in the midterm election. This year, that trend would stand to benefit Democrats.
In the new poll, 53% of participants said they disapproved of Trump’s job performance during his first year in office, while 45% approved. Nearly two-thirds of likely voters surveyed said their household costs have increased in the past year, with nearly 83% of respondents reporting higher food and grocery bills.
Bridget Ludwig, 51, of Dimondale referenced Trump in explaining her support for Benson to be Michigan’s next governor.
Benson has improved the secretary of state branches and won’t back down, Ludwig said of the Democrat.
“That’s what we need right now, is someone to stand up to these big bullies,” said Ludwig, who acknowledged she was referencing the president.
Trump won Michigan in the 2024 election with the help of a campaign that was focused on turning out voters who don’t routinely cast ballots. Republicans will likely need at least some of those people to show up this fall, without Trump running, to be successful.
Jim Runestad, chairman of the Michigan Republican Party, told The Detroit News that the question of the election will be whether voters who turned out to help Trump win in 2024 will show up again in 2026.
On Trump’s job approval numbers, 44% of participants said they “strongly” disapproved of Trump’s performance.
If Benson wins the wide majority of those voters who are critical of Trump, she would have a clear path to victory in a three-way race in November, Czuba noted.
The Whitmer effect?
Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer can’t run again this year because of term limits.
The Democrat won her first race against Republican Bill Schuette in 2018 by about 9 percentage points, 53%-44%. Then, in 2022, Whitmer scored a second term over Republican Tudor Dixon by about 10 points, 54%-44%. January polling in both contests showed Whitmer with comfortable leads to start each year.
The 2026 Michigan numbers are strikingly different, as no party appears to have a significant head start.
Usually, Michigan voters give one party two four-year terms in the governor’s office and then give the other party a chance to run Lansing. That happened in 2002, 2010 and 2018. But Whitmer’s success at winning over voters might upend the trend.
In the new poll, 60% of participants said they approved of Whitmer’s job performance, while 38% disapproved.
Usually, Michigan governors’ poll numbers are in the tank at the end of their second terms, Czuba said. Democratic former Gov. Jennifer Granholm was dealing with a multiyear economic recession as her time in Lansing ended, while Republican former Gov. Rick Snyder was facing the Flint water crisis.
“She will end up with the highest poll numbers of anybody since perhaps George Romney,” Czuba said.
Romney, a Republican, was Michigan’s governor in the 1960s.
Whitmer could use her strength to boost the Democratic nominee for governor, Czuba said. So far, Whitmer hasn’t engaged in the governor’s race in Michigan. But in December, she was elected vice chair of the Democratic Governors Association, a group that works to elect Democrats.
Inside Duggan’s numbers
Duggan’s 26% vote share in a possible race with Benson and James was up from a similar poll in May, which put him at 21%.
The former three-term mayor launched his bid for governor in December 2024, saying his approach “didn’t fit comfortably inside the dogma of either of the two political parties.”
The survey showed Duggan had the highest name identification of all of the candidates for governor, with 72% of participants saying they had heard of him.
Among other candidates for governor, 69% had heard of Benson; 64% had heard of James; 49% had heard of Republican former Attorney General Mike Cox; 30% had heard of Democrat Chris Swanson, the Genesee County sheriff; 23% had heard of Republican Aric Nesbitt, the state Senate minority leader; and 17% had heard of Republican Tom Leonard, the former House speaker.
Devin Heard, 26, of Warren, was among the Michigan voters who said they planned to support Duggan.
Heard said he grew up in Detroit and had seen the positive change that occurred in the city during Duggan’s 12 years as mayor. Duggan gets stuff done, Heard said.
Asked if he thinks Duggan can win in November, Heard replied, “I know that he is a strategic person.”
A nonprofit called Put Progress First, which supports Duggan, has been the most active player in the governor’s campaign so far, spending money on advertisements and billboards across the state promoting the independent candidate as the nation’s most effective mayor.
Michigan Democratic Party Chairman Curtis Hertel previously pegged the group’s spending, so far, at $8 million.
Duggan’s increased vote share in the poll is a positive sign for him, but the fact that he’s in third place with the highest name ID of the candidates could be a signal of the potential trouble ahead.
“Of the three candidates, Mike Duggan clearly has the hardest route,” said Czuba, referring to Benson, Duggan and James.
Czuba described that route as a “tightrope.”
“For him to be viable, he can’t piss either side off,” the pollster said.
Duggan also has to deal with the widespread use of straight-ticket voting in Michigan, where voters check one box to cast a ballot for every candidate from a single party. That offering on a paper ballot is difficult to reflect in a phone survey. In the November election, voters could check the straight-ticket box and still override the partisan preference to select Duggan individually in the governor’s race, but it might be a tough option to explain to voters.
About 24% of Duggan’s supporters in the poll said they generally vote a straight party ticket.
An opportunity for Duggan is the 8% of survey participants who were undecided because they’re mostly in the middle of the political spectrum and could be potential future Duggan voters, Czuba said.
Other candidates
Among the participants in the poll, 41% said they generally vote for Democrats, 40% said they generally vote for Republicans, 18% described themselves as independents, and 1% declined to answer about their voting habits.
Benson’s lone August primary opponent is Genesee County Sheriff Chris Swanson, after Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilchrist II dropped out of the governor’s race to run for secretary of state.
James faces a crowded GOP primary field.
The Glengariff Group polled three other Republican candidates for governor — Cox, Leonard and Nesbitt — against Benson and Duggan. They are all less well-known statewide than James and did worse in hypothetical matchups.
In a race with Cox, Benson received 34%, Duggan got 31%, Cox received 28% and 7% didn’t answer.
In a contest with Nesbitt, Benson got 35%, Duggan received 32%, Nesbitt got 24%, and 9% didn’t answer.
In a race with Leonard, Benson received 34%, Duggan got 33%, Leonard received 24%, and 8% didn’t answer.
